Why are Brazil's cases surging right now?
Why are Brazil's cases surging right now?
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Brazil has reported over 1.2 million cases and 54,000 deaths as of June 26, 2020. The recent surge in cases is mainly stemming from the country's densely populated regions, such as Sao Paolo and Rio de Janeiro. Studies estimate that 25% of the Brazilian population in Sao Paolo did not adequately adhere to quarantine guidelines, and the presence of densely packed low-income neighborhoods known as favelas has exacerbated the spread of the virus. In a new study, researchers conducted over 3,000 rapid tests in six of the city's most densely populated neighborhoods and found that infection rates were far higher than the official estimates: some studies had previously estimated that 9.5% of people in Sao Paolo were infected, but the most recent estimates from the largest favela in Sao Paola indicated almost 25% of people who were tested were positive. Medical experts attribute the surge in cases in major cities to relaxed quarantine and isolation measures. Major cities in the country have lifted lockdown measures, and reopened restaurants, shops and businesses. Another research study found that more than 75% of the confirmed cases are from the relatively densely populated southern and southeastern regions of Brazil, and the exponential growth in COVID-19 cases has stemmed from difficulties in effective social distancing. The study reports that many informal workers are continuing to work and information regarding minimum infection prevention and control measures, including hand washing and social distancing, has not been effectively communicated and followed.
Brazil has reported over 1.2 million cases and 54,000 deaths as of June 26, 2020. The recent surge in cases is mainly stemming from the country's densely populated regions, such as Sao Paolo and Rio de Janeiro. Studies estimate that 25% of the Brazilian population in Sao Paolo did not adequately adhere to quarantine guidelines, and the presence of densely packed low-income neighborhoods known as favelas has exacerbated the spread of the virus. In a new study, researchers conducted over 3,000 rapid tests in six of the city's most densely populated neighborhoods and found that infection rates were far higher than the official estimates: some studies had previously estimated that 9.5% of people in Sao Paolo were infected, but the most recent estimates from the largest favela in Sao Paola indicated almost 25% of people who were tested were positive. Medical experts attribute the surge in cases in major cities to relaxed quarantine and isolation measures. Major cities in the country have lifted lockdown measures, and reopened restaurants, shops and businesses. Another research study found that more than 75% of the confirmed cases are from the relatively densely populated southern and southeastern regions of Brazil, and the exponential growth in COVID-19 cases has stemmed from difficulties in effective social distancing. The study reports that many informal workers are continuing to work and information regarding minimum infection prevention and control measures, including hand washing and social distancing, has not been effectively communicated and followed.
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What our experts say
Brazil has reported over 1.2 million cases and 54,000 deaths as of June 26, 2020. The recent surge in cases is mainly stemming from the country's densely populated regions, such as Sao Paolo and Rio de Janeiro. Studies estimate that 25% of the Brazilian population in Sao Paolo did not adequately adhere to quarantine guidelines, and the presence of densely packed low-income neighborhoods known as favelas has exacerbated the spread of the virus. In a new study, researchers conducted over 3,000 rapid tests in six of the city's most densely populated neighborhoods and found that infection rates were far higher than the official estimates: some studies had previously estimated that 9.5% of people in Sao Paolo were infected, but the most recent estimates from the largest favela in Sao Paola indicated almost 25% of people who were tested were positive.
Medical experts attribute the surge in cases in major cities to relaxed quarantine and isolation measures. Major cities in the country have lifted lockdown measures, and reopened restaurants, shops and businesses. Another research study found that more than 75% of the confirmed cases are from the relatively densely populated southern and southeastern regions of Brazil, and the exponential growth in COVID-19 cases has stemmed from difficulties in effective social distancing. The study reports that many informal workers are continuing to work and information regarding minimum infection prevention and control measures, including hand washing and social distancing, has not been effectively communicated and followed.
Brazil has reported over 1.2 million cases and 54,000 deaths as of June 26, 2020. The recent surge in cases is mainly stemming from the country's densely populated regions, such as Sao Paolo and Rio de Janeiro. Studies estimate that 25% of the Brazilian population in Sao Paolo did not adequately adhere to quarantine guidelines, and the presence of densely packed low-income neighborhoods known as favelas has exacerbated the spread of the virus. In a new study, researchers conducted over 3,000 rapid tests in six of the city's most densely populated neighborhoods and found that infection rates were far higher than the official estimates: some studies had previously estimated that 9.5% of people in Sao Paolo were infected, but the most recent estimates from the largest favela in Sao Paola indicated almost 25% of people who were tested were positive.
Medical experts attribute the surge in cases in major cities to relaxed quarantine and isolation measures. Major cities in the country have lifted lockdown measures, and reopened restaurants, shops and businesses. Another research study found that more than 75% of the confirmed cases are from the relatively densely populated southern and southeastern regions of Brazil, and the exponential growth in COVID-19 cases has stemmed from difficulties in effective social distancing. The study reports that many informal workers are continuing to work and information regarding minimum infection prevention and control measures, including hand washing and social distancing, has not been effectively communicated and followed.
Context and background
Despite the COVID-19 risk factor of older age being favorable for Brazil’s relatively younger population, Brazil has seen a surge in the number of cases. Initially, transmission of the virus was limited to the larger cities of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro but now has moved inland into smaller cities. Thirteen million people in Brazil live in favelas, in close proximity to one another with lack of access to clean water. This makes the physical distancing and hygiene conditions necessary to prevent transmission of the virus very difficult. Smaller cities also have weaker health systems and fewer health care professionals to prevent the spread.
There has also been criticism of data suppression by the Brazilian government, and some opinions suggest that the actual cases could be seven times higher than the official figures.
Easing of preventative measures like opening up of malls and beaches and crowding of people is another reason to see increases in the number of cases. The president of the country has criticized state governments that are making efforts to combat the pandemic. With a president who denies the pandemic as a ‘cold,’ the political turmoil at the center has led to two health minsters being fired or quitting, leaving no public health expert to advise the leadership.
Despite the COVID-19 risk factor of older age being favorable for Brazil’s relatively younger population, Brazil has seen a surge in the number of cases. Initially, transmission of the virus was limited to the larger cities of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro but now has moved inland into smaller cities. Thirteen million people in Brazil live in favelas, in close proximity to one another with lack of access to clean water. This makes the physical distancing and hygiene conditions necessary to prevent transmission of the virus very difficult. Smaller cities also have weaker health systems and fewer health care professionals to prevent the spread.
There has also been criticism of data suppression by the Brazilian government, and some opinions suggest that the actual cases could be seven times higher than the official figures.
Easing of preventative measures like opening up of malls and beaches and crowding of people is another reason to see increases in the number of cases. The president of the country has criticized state governments that are making efforts to combat the pandemic. With a president who denies the pandemic as a ‘cold,’ the political turmoil at the center has led to two health minsters being fired or quitting, leaving no public health expert to advise the leadership.
Resources
- COVID-19 in Brazil (Pulmonology)
- Implications of social distancing in Brazil in the COVID-19 pandemic (Infection Control & Hospital Epidemiology)
- Coronavirus panel (Brazil's Ministry of Health)
- COVID-19 Infection Rate In Rio’s Favelas Far Exceeds Official Count, A New Study Says (Rio Prefeitura)
- Brazil Coronavirus Map and Case Count (NYT)
- Modeling and forecasting the early evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic in Brazil (arXiv)
- COVID-19 in Brazil (Pulmonology)
- Implications of social distancing in Brazil in the COVID-19 pandemic (Infection Control & Hospital Epidemiology)
- Coronavirus panel (Brazil's Ministry of Health)
- COVID-19 Infection Rate In Rio’s Favelas Far Exceeds Official Count, A New Study Says (Rio Prefeitura)
- Brazil Coronavirus Map and Case Count (NYT)
- Modeling and forecasting the early evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic in Brazil (arXiv)
