How does projection modeling work and how seriously should we take it as countries reopen?
How does projection modeling work and how seriously should we take it as countries reopen?
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Projection modeling is a mathematical way to use data to help predict a range of important COVID-19 outcomes, such as hospitalizations, infections and deaths. Modeling can also help determine how vaccinations or school closures, and the timing of these factors, may impact the disease outcomes. Modeling researchers use datasets, mathematical approaches, and other parameters to predict the spread and dynamic of infectious diseases. Models can to help predict the number of future virus cases and the peaks and curves that are part of the course of the outbreak. Modeling is a great tool to help support decision-making but models are not able to predict the future, and they can fluctuate based on interventions like the use of social distancing and wearing face masks, in the case of COVID-19. It is a helpful resource but should not be the sole source of information for guiding policy or interventions.
Projection modeling is a mathematical way to use data to help predict a range of important COVID-19 outcomes, such as hospitalizations, infections and deaths. Modeling can also help determine how vaccinations or school closures, and the timing of these factors, may impact the disease outcomes. Modeling researchers use datasets, mathematical approaches, and other parameters to predict the spread and dynamic of infectious diseases. Models can to help predict the number of future virus cases and the peaks and curves that are part of the course of the outbreak. Modeling is a great tool to help support decision-making but models are not able to predict the future, and they can fluctuate based on interventions like the use of social distancing and wearing face masks, in the case of COVID-19. It is a helpful resource but should not be the sole source of information for guiding policy or interventions.
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What our experts say
Projection modeling is a mathematical way to use data to help predict a range of important COVID-19 outcomes, such as hospitalizations, infections and deaths. Modeling can also help determine how vaccinations or school closures, and the timing of these factors, may impact the disease outcomes.Modeling researchers use datasets, mathematical approaches, and other parameters to predict the spread and dynamic of infectious diseases. Models can to help predict the number of future virus cases and the peaks and curves that are part of the course of the outbreak. Modeling is a great tool to help support decision-making but models are not able to predict the future, and they can fluctuate based on interventions like the use of social distancing and wearing face masks, in the case of COVID-19. It is a helpful resource but should not be the sole source of information for guiding policy or interventions.
Projection modeling is a mathematical way to use data to help predict a range of important COVID-19 outcomes, such as hospitalizations, infections and deaths. Modeling can also help determine how vaccinations or school closures, and the timing of these factors, may impact the disease outcomes.Modeling researchers use datasets, mathematical approaches, and other parameters to predict the spread and dynamic of infectious diseases. Models can to help predict the number of future virus cases and the peaks and curves that are part of the course of the outbreak. Modeling is a great tool to help support decision-making but models are not able to predict the future, and they can fluctuate based on interventions like the use of social distancing and wearing face masks, in the case of COVID-19. It is a helpful resource but should not be the sole source of information for guiding policy or interventions.
Context and background
Many models have been made available during the COVID-19 pandemic and can offer insight into peaks, impact of certain interventions, and other key predictors. Models are only as good as the data being used, the assumptions made, the parameters (constraints) put into place, and the continued updating of data to ensure the most recent and relevant information is available. The quality of the model impacts the accuracy of its predictions and as such, should be used as one of many resources in pandemic response and prevention.
Many models have been made available during the COVID-19 pandemic and can offer insight into peaks, impact of certain interventions, and other key predictors. Models are only as good as the data being used, the assumptions made, the parameters (constraints) put into place, and the continued updating of data to ensure the most recent and relevant information is available. The quality of the model impacts the accuracy of its predictions and as such, should be used as one of many resources in pandemic response and prevention.
Resources
- Five ways to ensure that models serve society: a manifesto (NATURE)
- U.S. CDC Models
- Opinion: What models can and cannot tell us about COVID-19 (PNAS)
- Five ways to ensure that models serve society: a manifesto (NATURE)
- U.S. CDC Models
- Opinion: What models can and cannot tell us about COVID-19 (PNAS)
